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在新冠肺炎病毒爆發(fā)迫使政府關(guān)閉各城市關(guān)口，鼓勵市民居家后，中國的燃料需求顯著減少。據(jù)估計，中國現(xiàn)今燃料需求大約減少400萬桶/天。

根據(jù)路透社專欄作家克萊德·羅素（Clyde Russell）估計，和一月相比，二月中國原油進口量仍較為平穩(wěn)，僅減少16萬桶/天。而三月，進口到中國這一全球主要石油進口國和作為主要經(jīng)濟增長動力的原油進口量將少于二月，因為當新冠病毒大爆發(fā)給國家燃料需求踩下剎車時，二月的大多數(shù)原油交易都已經(jīng)簽約，原油也已運往中國。

同時由于一些煉廠會在冬季和夏季之間安排設備維護，這也一同導致三月可能是中國今年原油進口量最少的月份。

據(jù)稱因為新冠病毒爆發(fā)造成中國的煉制需求銳減，中國主要石油供應商和全球最大石油出口國——沙特阿拉伯，在三月將至少縮減50萬桶/天的對華出口量。

雖然一些因素表明三月中國原油進口會顯著減少，但是有其他原因顯示中國石油進口不會斷崖式下跌。

誠然，石油需求量減少相當大，包括IEA, EIA, OPEC的在內(nèi)的所有組織和分析機構(gòu)，都將其2020年石油需求增長預測數(shù)據(jù)削減23-40萬桶/天，預計今年全球需求增長為100萬桶/天，甚至更少。

在新冠病毒爆發(fā)前，所有組織機構(gòu)都認為在中美貿(mào)易協(xié)議第一階段和全球經(jīng)濟光明前景下，今年的需求增長將加快速度。

當前新冠病毒臨近肆虐邊緣，分析家認為經(jīng)濟增長前景會小于預期。市場也擔心病毒在中國以外超速傳播，將給予經(jīng)濟重擊。

如果中國在三月有效地控制住新冠病毒，當局放松財政刺激以助力經(jīng)濟，燃料需求最快在四月就能開始恢復。

因為國內(nèi)燃料需求低迷，煉廠削減了燃料生產(chǎn)，今年中國原油進口最少的月份將會是三月。新冠病毒開始出現(xiàn)的時候，中國正值傳統(tǒng)新年前夕，為一月底，二月初新年時期人們出游做準備，燃料存儲量很高。之后病毒大爆發(fā)促使當局嚴格限制旅行，不鼓勵出游，造成燃料供應剩余。多余的燃料現(xiàn)在出口亞洲鄰國，使成品油涌入本就脆弱的亞洲市場。

維托爾首席執(zhí)行官羅素·哈迪（Russell Hardy）上周表示，旅行禁令和低迷的經(jīng)濟活動使中國現(xiàn)在減少了400萬桶/天的石油需求。

然而這種需求減少不代表中國會縮減等量的原油進口。

事實上，中國不過分削減進口，有兩個的堅實理由——這周的油價跌至一年多來的最低點，這鼓勵了煉油商投機性買入，為今年晚些時候備貨，也使國家能用14個月來最便宜的原油填補其戰(zhàn)略性汽油儲備。

在各個假設中的未知數(shù)是，煉廠和中國有多少存儲容量來利用原油價格走低。由于中國庫存報告的不透明性，無人能確定中國如果不打算立即加工，能夠存儲多少的原油。

中國是全球主要的石油需求增長動力。如果能控制住新冠病毒的傳播，刺激經(jīng)濟生產(chǎn)，原油進口在三月底就能開始回升。

來源：Oilprice

China’s Oil Demand Could

Rebound Sooner Than Expected

China’s fuel demand has materially weakened after the coronavirus outbreak forced authorities to lock down cities and discourage travels.

Some estimates put the current demand loss in China at around 4 million barrels per day (bpd) of fuel.  

Still, China’s crude oil imports are expected to have held up pretty well in February, slowing by just around 160,000 bpd compared to January import levels, according to Reuters columnist Clyde Russell who cites estimates from Refinitiv Oil Research.

Crude oil imports into the world’s top oil importer and key growth driver would be weaker in March than in February, because most of the February volumes had been contracted, set, and en route to China when the coronavirus outbreak put the brakes on fuel demand in the country.

March could be the month with the lowest Chinese crude imports this year, also because some refiners typically schedule maintenance between the winter and summer fuel seasons.

China’s top oil supplier and the world’s largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, is said to be cutting its crude exports to the world’s top oil importer by at least 500,000 bpd in March because of a slump in refinery demand amid the coronavirus outbreak.

Several factors point to materially lower Chinese crude oil imports in March, but a couple of other reasons also suggest that China’s crude imports will not fall off a cliff.

True, the demand loss is considerable, to the point of having all organizations and analysts, including the IEA, the EIA, and OPEC, slash their oil demand growth forecasts for 2020 by between 230,000 bpd and 400,000 bpd and now expecting this year’s global demand growth at 1 million bpd or less.

Before the coronavirus outbreak, all estimates pointed to demand growth picking up pace this year, thanks to the phase one U.S.-China trade deal and brighter prospects for the global economy.

With the coronavirus on the verge of becoming pandemic, analysts are cutting economic growth outlooks and the markets fear a significant hit to economies as the outbreak now spreads faster outside China than within China.

If China effectively contains the coronavirus in March and authorities loosen their stimulus purse strings to help the economy, fuel demand could begin to recover as early as in April.

The weakest month of China’s crude oil imports this year could be in March because refineries have slashed fuel production amid depressed domestic demand for fuels. The coronavirus came at a time in which fuel stocks were high in China in preparation of the Chinese New Year at the end of January and the beginning of February, when people typically travel a lot. The outbreak imposed strict travel restrictions and travel continues to be discouraged, so China found itself in an oversupply of fuels, which it now exports to neighboring Asian countries, flooding the already weak Asian market with more refined oil products.

Travel bans and lower economic activity cost China 4 million bpd of lost demand at the moment, Vitol’s chief executive Russell Hardy said last week.

This demand loss, however, doesn’t mean that China will be slashing crude oil imports by as much.  

In fact, the world’s top oil importer has two very solid reasons not to slack off imports too much—oil prices trading this week at their lowest in more than a year, which could encourage opportunistic buying by refiners to stock up for later this year and for the state to fill in its strategic petroleum reserves with the cheapest crude in 14 months.

The unknowns in these assumptions are how much storage capacity refiners and China have to potentially take advantage of the low crude oil prices. Because of the opaque nature of China’s reporting of inventories, no one is really certain how much crude oil China could stock up if it doesn’t plan to process it immediately.

China is the world’s top oil demand growth driver and if it manages to soon contain the coronavirus outbreak and stimulate the economy, crude oil imports could begin rising again when March ends.